Thursday, 6 September 2012

Rupee hits 3-week low on fall in shares, euro


MUMBAI (Reuters) - The rupee dipped to its lowest level in three weeks on Wednesday, weighed down by losses in domestic stocks and the euro, on skepticism about the European Central Bank's ability to unveil a concrete plan to help debt-laden euro zone economies.
A Kashmiri woman walks under a garland made of Indian currency notes on display at a market in Srinagar September 3, 2012. REUTERS/Fayaz Kabli/FilesThe euro had been rallying on hopes of some concrete steps from the ECB after its meeting on Thursday, but closer to the date investors grew cautious and preferred to cut back on their long positions on the single currency.
A bout of risk aversion was seen across regional share markets as investors traded nervously ahead of the ECB meeting and the U.S. jobs report.
"Market is skeptical of the ECB's bond-buying plan, but any positive move from (ECB President) Draghi will help risk sentiment," said Vikas Babu Chittiprolu, a foreign exchange dealer with state-run Andhra Bank.
"There was oil demand also seen today along with the risk aversion globally, which hurt the rupee," he added.
Oil refiners are the largest buyers of dollars in the domestic currency market.
The partially convertible rupee closed at 55.9050/9150 per dollar, 0.46 percent weaker than its close of 55.65/66 on Tuesday. The unit dropped to as low as 55.9575 during the day, its weakest since August 16.
The euro dropped on the back of growing scepticism among investors but losses were limited as some still bet the ECB would announce details of a bond-buying programme to lower Spanish and Italian borrowing costs.
Traders said dollar sales by exporters around 55.95 levels helped the rupee recover some ground. However, a fall below that level was likely this week if the ECB disappoints, they added.
The one-month onshore forward premium dropped to 34.25 bps versus its previous close of 36.25, while the one-year premium eased slightly to 335.50 bps against 337.75 bps on Tuesday.
The one-month offshore non-deliverable forwards were at 56.27, while the three-month was at 56.90, reflecting a bearish near-term outlook.
Traders said the rupee was likely to hold in a 55.75 to 56.25 band on Thursday, the ECB meeting outcome being the key.
In the currency futures market, the most-traded near-month dollar/rupee contracts on the National Stock Exchange, the MCX-SX and the United Stock Exchange all closed at around 56.12 with a total traded volume at around $3.08 billion.

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